Time to put the Sherlock Holmes hat on and try and detect what is happenning. To set the record, we are long term trend INVESTORS we do not trade. Why? becuase trading does not work search GOOGLE or YAHOO and look for millionare traders and nothing comes up. People like Soros and Buffett are longterm investors as was Jesse Livermore and Jim Rogers.

Livermore and Buffett have both stated publicly that the MARKET CANNOT BE BEAT. So why would we bother to try?

We look at charts but only to get a feel as to the markets trends, for every technical analysis buy signal there will be a sell signal, for every divergence that works, there will be one that does not.

We only look at Weekly and Monthly charts as daily charts are really just nosise and give no real clarification. On most of the weekly commodities charts recently we were seeing extremely well formed triangles, also on the USD chart. Now conventional technical analysis wisdom is that a triangle breaks out in the direction of the dominant trend. This proved WRONG commodities whose dominat trend was UP, have been hit very hard this last week and the USD has moved up very slightly. To me this smells. I believe very stongly that the commodity markets in particular are very heavily manipulated THEY DO NOT WANT RISING COMMODITIES for many reasons

1, The energy,s are inflationary they affect the price of everything eventually as we are so dependant on them. Joe Public sees rising petrol and gas and electric prices and thinks " this is not good i better tighten my belt" he slows his consumption. As the consumer is 70% of the economy this is bad news !!!

2 The precious metals show up the truth as regards inflation so they need to be managed downwards to maintain the inflation lie. Does anybody honestly believe that the real inflation rate is approximatly 3.5% per year as officially stated? i would suggest that you are smoking some pretty good stuff if you believe this. By understating the official rate of inflation this is theft pure and simple. Anybody receiving Pensions, benefits or wage rises based upon the official calculation is being shortchanged the difference between the official rate and the true rate. Compound this theft over several years and the person will be feeling real poverty. Gold and Silver is real money as JP Morgan stated in front of a senate select committee when asked about the role of Gold "Gold is money and nothing else is" so the dollar denominated value of real money has to be "managed" to maintain credibility in the paper money which is inheretly worthless.

3 Base commodities such as base metals and agriculture products are earnings destroyers, they are business inputs. If a company has to pay higher prices for imputs this will flow through to the bottom line and hurt nett profits or earnings. This will affect the share price of the company. This is becuase we know that the share price of any company has a long term PE ratio average for a publicly traded company of 14 to 1. If earnings are decreased becuase of increased input costs then the share price will fall eventually to reflect the new earnings reality.

So make no mistake commodities have no friends in Wall Street or the City Of London the tragedy is that real people are being conned by inflation manipulation and most of the 2nd and 3rd world is largely a product of Wall Street and the City. These poorer or very poor countries rely on commodity exports WHICH ARE ALLWAYS MANIPULATED DOWNWARDS.

They are manipulated by using futures exchanges, for example Silver is bought and sold in 5000 ounce contracts. It is a paper game and rarely involves physical silver. For every contract buyer there is a contract seller as all contracts must match. If there are more buyers than sellers the contract price rises. If more contract sellers than buyers then the contract price falls.

Becuase the contracts are denominated in $ the large banks WHO PRODUCE DOLLARS AT NO COST have a huge market advantage. They can produce any amount of SHORT or sell contracts whenever they wish to overwhelm the market, which they frequently do. The 1987 stockmarket crash was the largest one day crash in history even greater than any of the declines in 1929. In many of the commodities this is a regular event, in Silver it has happenned 3 times in the last 3 years !!!!

Why? these bone crunching falls are deliberate and orchestrated, the large Banks work together at the behest of the Fed, when they wish to take a market down they pull there bids. This means that desperate sellers find there are no buyers, the market enters a vaccuum until they step forward to cover there SHORTS by buying from the badly bruised and beaten LONGS.

The reason is simple they DO NOT WANT MARGIN OR LEVERAGE BUILD UP IN THE COMMODITIES MARKETS It is obvious that commodities are in a major bull market, largely the result of worldwide increasing demand but also the supply side problems the result of a near 20 year bear market. Add in rampant monetary inflation and the conditions for a sustained Bull market arec in place. THEY DO NOT WANT TO MAKE IT AS EASY AS THIS. We are invested in commodities but we do not use margin, we believe in the fundementals of commdities but we fully understand that it is a white knuckle NO MARGIN ride.

If you want to invest in commodities great! BUT and this is a very BIG BUT be carefull they are often treacherous markets. This treachery is man made by some very powerful vested interests.

That is the tragedy, the reality we have elections coming up in November so would it not be "usefull" to have Energy prices falling, the stockmarket rising and house prices stabilised right before the election to help, the voters with there decision !!!. The markets are looking like a rerun of 2004 with George Bush,s election "victory". You can guarantee that Bernanke at the next meeting will ceratinly "pause" and may even "cut" to help the election cause

It was time for a commodities TAKE DOWN that simple.